Weather Avoidance

I began flying a Piper Malibu earlier this year.  For those of you not familiar with the original PA-46, a Malibu has a Continental TSIO-320 engine, with 310 HP.  It’s pressurized and cruises at about 185-200 KTAS.

A few things are introduced to the equation when pilots start flying higher, faster, and farther.  When you start flying over longer distances, weather becomes more of an issue.  On a quick hop from, say, Austin to Dallas, you can be pretty sure of what the weather will be since it’s a short trip.  When you fly from Austin to LA, leave in the morning, land once along the way, and arrive in the afternoon after spending six and a half hours in the air, weather can change a lot in that amount of time.

A must for any pilot flying high and over long distances is some kind of Nexrad system, whether it be a Garmin 696, or it shows up on your GPS or MFD.  Having this situation awareness is very helpful when planning ahead as to what to do about weather.  A stormscope is also a handy tool, since you can see where the lightning is with it.

Cold fronts can be pretty nasty, depending on how strong and how fast they are moving.  A strong, fast moving cold front usually has a lot of convective activity associated with it.  The tricky thing with storms associated with fronts is that storms form in lines, most of the time.  If you’re trying to cross a front in the morning, you can usually get high enough over the clouds with a pressurized airplane since the temperature is still relatively low to get clear of the cumulonimbus clouds.  The cloud tops will only be around ten or twelve thousand feet.

CB CloudCrossing fronts in the afternoon when daytime heating is pushing the tops of the CBs up to the 20-40 thousand foot range, it’s best to land, have a meal, stretch your legs, and wait till the sun starts to go down before pushing on.  Do not, under any circumstances, try and go through the cumulonimbus clouds associated with a cold front in a small airplane.  Not only is it uncomfortable (the turbulence bounces you around pretty good), but you’ll get ice, scare the passengers, and, if you’re in the heart of a storm, the plane could come apart.

When crossing mountains, the weather is always highly unpredictable.  If it’s a clear day, no matter your altitude, you’ll probably pick up some turbulence from all the rising air off the peaks.  If there is moisture in the air, there are going to be isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the summer time.  The advantage of flying high when there are isolated or scattered storms is you can utilize the see and avoid method.

See and avoid is simple.  When the storms aren’t embedded in other clouds, it’s actually rather easy to spot the big, rising clouds and go around them.  The same concept holds true when avoiding those pesky pop up thunderstorms in humid areas like Houston and Florida.

Rain ShaftsOne thing that I learned this summer was this.  Sometimes, with an area of closely grouped storms, the cloud base is actually quite high (some storms I went underneath in New Mexico had cloud bases of 15,000 MSL).  The thing to do here is just stay below the bases of the clouds and go around the areas of rain.  These will be visible and you’ll be able to navigate around them.  With bases even as low 9-10 thousand feet, it’s a much better idea to stay below the clouds, sacrifice some speed, and dodge the rain shafts.

The most important concept to take away is don’t fly into a thunderstorm.  If there are a bunch of really high clouds in front of you and you don’t see a safe way around them, descend down and land, wait it out, and then continue on your way.

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    Interested in checking the simulator out? Contact us today!

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    Please RSVP to erin@chucksaircraftllc.com. Hope to see you there!!!

    Chuck’s Aircraft is the hangar circled in green
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    I like to keep a few extra quarts of 15W50 in the back of the Bonanza, just in case (photo from oil-store.com)
    I like to keep a few extra quarts of 15W50 in the back of the Bonanza, just in case (photo from oil-store.com)

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    Here is an example of the 100LL price tool as seen on the Foreflight maps page
    Here is an example of the 100LL price tool as seen on the Foreflight maps page

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    These are the cables we keep in the back of the Bonanza (photo from airchief.com)
    These are the cables we keep in the back of the Bonanza (photo from airchief.com)

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    Rental cars

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    Hotels

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    Andrew Robinson is a 135 Charter Pilot and flight instructor who lives with his wife and 2 daughters in Pennsylvania.  He flies Pilatus PC-12s and instructs in Beechcraft Bonanzas.

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  • What’s Going On With the Airplane Market?

    An Airplane Market Update, Q2 2026

    I get asked some version of the same question almost every day right now: “Hank, what’s going on with the airplane market?” Owners are nervous. The market has definitely slowed down, and the second quarter has been especially quiet. So let me give you a straight read on what’s actually happening, why, and what it means for your airplane.

    Here’s the short version: don’t panic. A slow market is not a market crash. It’s a market that rewards sellers who price realistically and buyers who are ready to pull the trigger. Patience is the name of the game right now.

    PDF
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    The complete write-up — values, trends, and forecasts broken down by airframe. Sent straight to your inbox, free.

    Where values have actually been heading

    Used airplane values shot up through the COVID years, peaked somewhere around 2022, and have been softening ever since — really since about 2023. That’s carried into 2026. But in most piston airplanes, it looks a whole lot more like a slow, steady give-back than a crash.

    Now, here’s where I’d rather look than at asking prices. An asking price is just what a seller is hoping — or dreaming — to get; it isn’t what the airplane is worth. What an airplane is actually worth is what VREF tracks. And when I pull the VREF values on the single-engine pistons I’ve been appraising lately, a clear pattern shows up:

    • Older and less expensive airplanes are holding up the best. A clean normally-aspirated G1, G2, or G3 Cirrus SR20 or SR22 is down about 3% over the last twelve months. Older, more classic airplanes — Bonanzas, a Cherokee Six, a clean P210 — are flat to down just a few points. One outlier is the Cessna/Columbia 400 market — those are down about 13%.
    • The newer and more expensive, cabin-class singles have dropped more. A pressurized Malibu Mirage is down around 12% on VREF value, with other PA-46 pistons and turbines valued a little better, but still down between 8–12% over the last year.

    Call it roughly 5% on average across the segment. That’s more than the under-1% you’d guess from asking prices alone — but it’s still less than 15% down over the last year, not a crash. The rule of thumb: the older and less expensive the aircraft, the better the values are holding; the newer and more expensive the aircraft, the more the value has dropped over the last year.

    What a Crash Actually Looks Like

    Worth being precise about what I mean. A real crash — like 2008–09 — is sudden and disorderly: values plunge almost overnight, financing dries up, buyers walk away from their deposits, and airplanes sit because there’s no one to buy them at any price. New business-jet deliveries fell nearly 34% in a single year, and it took years to climb back. What we have now is the opposite on every count — value drops of 15% or less, financing that’s tighter but still available, and airplanes that are still changing hands. That’s a soft, orderly market, not a crash.

    Why Q2 got so quiet

    A handful of things piled up at the same time. None of them is a disaster on its own, but together they explain why the phone has been ringing less.

    Rates didn’t come down the way everybody expected. Oil shot past $110 a barrel after the conflict with Iran, inflation came roaring back, and the Fed stopped dropping rates — so financing an airplane still costs more, and that takes the urgency out of buyers. Financing also got tighter; the days of 100% loans with no money down are basically over, and lenders want bigger down payments.

    The tax rush already happened, too: when the One Big Beautiful Bill brought back 100% bonus depreciation, it set off a mad dash to close before year-end, and a lot of the folks who’d have been shopping this spring already bought last winter. Plus, there are simply more airplanes to choose from now, which hands buyers options and pulls pricing power away from sellers.

    So what should you do?

    It depends on which side of the deal you’re on.

    If you’re selling, price to today’s market — not the 2022 peak, and, unfortunately, not what you paid for the airplane. Realistically priced airplanes are still selling; the ones that sit are the ones chasing a number the market left behind. Keep your logs complete, stay current on inspections (don’t forget those 24-month IFR inspections!) and ADs, and present the airplane well. Have a thorough annual done before putting it on the market. Keep it clean and do whatever cosmetic or avionics fixes or upgrades you’ve been neglecting — you want it to show as well as possible, because there’s a lot of competition out there.

    Re-dyeing the leather seats is a cost-effective way to spruce up the interior without replacing the seats. A good wash will certainly help the exterior. Glass in the panel always shows better than steam gauges, so even something simple like an Aspen upgrade, two Garmin GI 275s or G5s, or a 7-inch Garmin G3X will bring value to your airplane and make it show better — any of those are less than $10,000. If you do still have a Garmin 530W or 430W, consider changing them out for a newer Garmin or Avidyne IFD unit; Garmin won’t support the 530W/430W anymore. And Avidyne is quietly ending support for the Entegra system this fall — but the good news is the Avidyne Vantage panels are finally certified.

    And if you can wait, give it some thought — the back half of the year is shaping up stronger. The fourth quarter is traditionally the best stretch for used sales, and now that bonus depreciation is permanent, that year-end push resets every fall.

    If you’re buying, this is your window. Higher rates have thinned out the competition, there are more airplanes to pick from than there have been in years, and sellers are more willing to deal. If you’ve got cash ready or financing lined up, you’ve got leverage you didn’t have eighteen months ago. Be picky — buy the clean one with good records.

    If you’re just holding, relax. There’s no reason to panic-sell. Most piston values are easing off slowly, not collapsing. Patience wins here.

    The right move always comes down to your specific airplane, your timeline, and what you’re trying to accomplish. If you’d like a current valuation — or just an honest read on where your airplane sits in today’s market — give me a call. That’s what we’re here for.

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