What’s Going On With the Airplane Market?
An Airplane Market Update, Q2 2026
I get asked some version of the same question almost every day right now: “Hank, what’s going on with the airplane market?” Owners are nervous. The market has definitely slowed down, and the second quarter has been especially quiet. So let me give you a straight read on what’s actually happening, why, and what it means for your airplane.
Here’s the short version: don’t panic. A slow market is not a market crash. It’s a market that rewards sellers who price realistically and buyers who are ready to pull the trigger. Patience is the name of the game right now.
Where values have actually been heading
Used airplane values shot up through the COVID years, peaked somewhere around 2022, and have been softening ever since — really since about 2023. That’s carried into 2026. But in most piston airplanes, it looks a whole lot more like a slow, steady give-back than a crash.
Now, here’s where I’d rather look than at asking prices. An asking price is just what a seller is hoping — or dreaming — to get; it isn’t what the airplane is worth. What an airplane is actually worth is what VREF tracks. And when I pull the VREF values on the single-engine pistons I’ve been appraising lately, a clear pattern shows up:
- Older and less expensive airplanes are holding up the best. A clean normally-aspirated G1, G2, or G3 Cirrus SR20 or SR22 is down about 3% over the last twelve months. Older, more classic airplanes — Bonanzas, a Cherokee Six, a clean P210 — are flat to down just a few points. One outlier is the Cessna/Columbia 400 market — those are down about 13%.
- The newer and more expensive, cabin-class singles have dropped more. A pressurized Malibu Mirage is down around 12% on VREF value, with other PA-46 pistons and turbines valued a little better, but still down between 8–12% over the last year.
Call it roughly 5% on average across the segment. That’s more than the under-1% you’d guess from asking prices alone — but it’s still less than 15% down over the last year, not a crash. The rule of thumb: the older and less expensive the aircraft, the better the values are holding; the newer and more expensive the aircraft, the more the value has dropped over the last year.
What a Crash Actually Looks Like
Worth being precise about what I mean. A real crash — like 2008–09 — is sudden and disorderly: values plunge almost overnight, financing dries up, buyers walk away from their deposits, and airplanes sit because there’s no one to buy them at any price. New business-jet deliveries fell nearly 34% in a single year, and it took years to climb back. What we have now is the opposite on every count — value drops of 15% or less, financing that’s tighter but still available, and airplanes that are still changing hands. That’s a soft, orderly market, not a crash.
Why Q2 got so quiet
A handful of things piled up at the same time. None of them is a disaster on its own, but together they explain why the phone has been ringing less.
Rates didn’t come down the way everybody expected. Oil shot past $110 a barrel after the conflict with Iran, inflation came roaring back, and the Fed stopped dropping rates — so financing an airplane still costs more, and that takes the urgency out of buyers. Financing also got tighter; the days of 100% loans with no money down are basically over, and lenders want bigger down payments.
The tax rush already happened, too: when the One Big Beautiful Bill brought back 100% bonus depreciation, it set off a mad dash to close before year-end, and a lot of the folks who’d have been shopping this spring already bought last winter. Plus, there are simply more airplanes to choose from now, which hands buyers options and pulls pricing power away from sellers.
So what should you do?
It depends on which side of the deal you’re on.
If you’re selling, price to today’s market — not the 2022 peak, and, unfortunately, not what you paid for the airplane. Realistically priced airplanes are still selling; the ones that sit are the ones chasing a number the market left behind. Keep your logs complete, stay current on inspections (don’t forget those 24-month IFR inspections!) and ADs, and present the airplane well. Have a thorough annual done before putting it on the market. Keep it clean and do whatever cosmetic or avionics fixes or upgrades you’ve been neglecting — you want it to show as well as possible, because there’s a lot of competition out there.
Re-dyeing the leather seats is a cost-effective way to spruce up the interior without replacing the seats. A good wash will certainly help the exterior. Glass in the panel always shows better than steam gauges, so even something simple like an Aspen upgrade, two Garmin GI 275s or G5s, or a 7-inch Garmin G3X will bring value to your airplane and make it show better — any of those are less than $10,000. If you do still have a Garmin 530W or 430W, consider changing them out for a newer Garmin or Avidyne IFD unit; Garmin won’t support the 530W/430W anymore. And Avidyne is quietly ending support for the Entegra system this fall — but the good news is the Avidyne Vantage panels are finally certified.
And if you can wait, give it some thought — the back half of the year is shaping up stronger. The fourth quarter is traditionally the best stretch for used sales, and now that bonus depreciation is permanent, that year-end push resets every fall.
If you’re buying, this is your window. Higher rates have thinned out the competition, there are more airplanes to pick from than there have been in years, and sellers are more willing to deal. If you’ve got cash ready or financing lined up, you’ve got leverage you didn’t have eighteen months ago. Be picky — buy the clean one with good records.
If you’re just holding, relax. There’s no reason to panic-sell. Most piston values are easing off slowly, not collapsing. Patience wins here.
The right move always comes down to your specific airplane, your timeline, and what you’re trying to accomplish. If you’d like a current valuation — or just an honest read on where your airplane sits in today’s market — give me a call. That’s what we’re here for.
