Where the Airplane Market Is Headed in Q4 2026
Four things moved this market between July and the end of September, and each one changes the arithmetic on what your airplane is worth today. Inventory is thinner than it was a year ago and has stopped draining. Asking values have split. The Fed raised rates and has penciled in one more increase for December. And the FAA ended single-pilot operation in the legacy Citations. Here is the short version, and what I would do about it before December 31.
The short version
- Turboprop inventory is running about 12% under last year, and the field stopped shrinking in September.
- Piston asking values are still giving back. Turbine asking values have turned up.
- The federal funds rate is 3.75–4.00%, with one more quarter-point increase projected for December.
- The FAA rescinded the legacy Citation single-pilot exemptions on September 29, with no wind-down.
- Accepted offer to closing runs 30 to 45 days. To close before December 31 you need an offer accepted by about November 15 — which means listing by October 31.
Inventory is thin, and it stopped draining
In September, used single-engine piston inventory in the U.S. and Canada was down 12.2% against last year. Turboprops were down 12.0% worldwide. Jets were down 23.6%, with the large-cabin end off 39.8%. The field your airplane competes against is smaller than it was a year ago.
The monthly direction is the other half. Piston inventory was flat in September, turboprops rose 3.5% and jets rose 5.1% — the second month running that inventory added rather than drained. So the field is thin by the standard of a year ago, and it is no longer getting thinner.
Asking values have split
The three categories stopped moving together. Piston singles fell 0.74% on the month and are down 2.36% against last year. Turboprops rose 0.22% on the month and are up 0.57% on the year. Jets rose 2.02% on the month and are up 0.71%, led by the super-mids at plus 5.29%.
Asking prices are not values, and I will keep saying that. What they give you is the leading edge — VREF and the closed comps follow a quarter or two behind. Right now that edge says the turbine market has turned the corner and the piston market has not.
Rates went up, and may go again in December
On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate a quarter point, to 3.75–4.00% — the first increase since 2023, on a unanimous vote. The Committee’s own projections point to one more quarter-point increase in December. A financed buyer’s payment is higher than it was in the spring, and his offer reflects it.
The FAA ended single-pilot flying in the legacy Citations
On September 28 the FAA published a policy change rescinding the training-provider exemptions that let a single pilot fly the transport-category Citations. Effective September 29, no wind-down. Thirteen of the fourteen exemption holders reviewed were rescinded or denied renewal.
It catches the two-crew airframes: the 500, 550, S550, 552, 560, 550 Bravo, 560 Encore and Encore+. It does not touch the 501, the 551, the CJ/525 family, the Mustang, or any turboprop.
A large share of those airplanes are owner-flown. That owner now hires a second pilot for every leg, or he stops flying. NBAA and Citation Jet Pilots asked for a 90-day pause on September 29. No answer yet.
Why single-engine turboprops gain from it
The demand moves, it does not disappear. The owner-pilot still wants to fly himself, and what he can legally fly is a short list: the CJ family, the Vision Jet, and the single-pilot turbines — TBM, M500, M600, M700, PC-12, JetProp. Those are legal single-pilot by type certificate, not by exemption.
The budgets line up. A clean legacy Citation’s price buys a strong TBM or a good PC-12, so these buyers arrive at the top of the turboprop market, where supply is thinnest and inventory is already 12% under last year.
Expect it in the leading indicators first — inquiries, showings, days on market — with price following a quarter or two behind.
The number that should drive your decision
Our airplanes went from listing to closing in a median of 98 days last year. This year that median is 178 days, an 81% increase. Buyers take longer, financing takes longer, pre-buys are more thorough.
At that pace an airplane listed today closes in March, not December. The year-end buyer is the exception — he is working to a December 31 placed-in-service deadline and moves far faster than the median.
Work the calendar backwards from that deadline. From an accepted offer, 30 to 45 days covers scheduling the prebuy, the inspection itself, the acceptance window and then escrow and title. To close before December 31 the offer has to be accepted by about November 15. To have an offer in hand by then, the airplane needs to be in front of buyers by the end of October. That is the whole reason for the date.
Our closings this year came in a median of 4.8% under the ask the airplane carried when it sold, and 7.1% under its original list price. We reduce the ask; we do not haggle.
On the fence about selling? List by October 31
If you own a Meridian, M500, M600, JetProp, TBM, Epic, PC-12 or Vision Jet and you have been going back and forth, here is the case for the next three weeks.
The buyers are shopping now. The displaced Citation owner-pilots are working through their options this quarter, and what they can legally fly is close to that list. An October listing puts your airplane in front of them while the field is thin. A March listing puts it in the spring wave, beside every other owner who had the same idea over the winter.
We took a full-price offer on one of our single-engine turboprops after a week on the market.
The call is yours. The calendar is the part that is not negotiable.
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